| 1. Identificação | |
| Tipo de Referência | Artigo em Revista Científica (Journal Article) |
| Site | mtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br |
| Código do Detentor | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identificador | 8JMKD3MGP7W/38DDKL8 |
| Repositório | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2010/10.11.19.13 |
| Última Atualização | 2010:10.11.19.21.58 (UTC) administrator |
| Repositório de Metadados | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2010/10.11.19.13.06 |
| Última Atualização dos Metadados | 2021:01.02.22.17.21 (UTC) administrator |
| Chave Secundária | INPE--PRE/ |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.cageo.2010.01.008 |
| ISSN | 0098-3004 |
| Chave de Citação | LoweBaStGrCoSáBa:2011:ToEaWa |
| Título | Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil  |
| Projeto | Leverhulme Trust[F/00 144/AT]; Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP)[2005/05210-7, 2006/02497-6] |
| Ano | 2011 |
| Mês | Mar. |
| Data de Acesso | 11 maio 2024 |
| Tipo de Trabalho | journal article |
| Tipo Secundário | PRE PI |
| Número de Arquivos | 1 |
| Tamanho | 1600 KiB |
| 2. Contextualização | |
| Autor | 1 Lowe, Rachel 2 Bailey, Trevor C. 3 Stephenson, David B. 4 Graham, R. J. 5 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 6 Sá Carvalho, Marilia 7 Barcellos, Christovam |
| Grupo | 1 2 3 4 5 DOP-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Afiliação | 1 School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road 2 School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road 3 School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road 4 Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Health Information Research Laboratory, LIS/ICICT/Fiocruz, Av. Brasil, Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro 7 Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Health Information Research Laboratory, LIS/ICICT/Fiocruz, Av. Brasil, Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro |
| Endereço de e-Mail do Autor | 1 2 3 4 5 caio.coelho@cptec.inpe.br |
| Revista | Computers and Geosciences |
| Volume | 37 |
| Número | 3 Special Issue |
| Páginas | 371-381 |
| Nota Secundária | A2_CIÊNCIA_DA_COMPUTAÇÃO B4_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_II B1_ENGENHARIAS_I B1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR |
| Histórico (UTC) | 2011-07-25 15:50:10 :: valdirene -> administrator :: 2010 -> 2011 2011-07-25 15:50:15 :: administrator -> valdirene :: 2011 2011-07-25 15:51:09 :: valdirene -> administrator :: 2011 2011-07-25 16:38:02 :: administrator -> valdirene :: 2011 2011-11-04 12:07:35 :: valdirene -> banon :: 2011 2011-11-23 14:07:11 :: banon -> administrator :: 2011 2021-01-02 22:17:21 :: administrator -> valdirene :: 2011 |
| 3. Conteúdo e estrutura | |
| É a matriz ou uma cópia? | é a matriz |
| Estágio do Conteúdo | concluido |
| Transferível | 1 |
| Tipo do Conteúdo | External Contribution |
| Tipo de Versão | finaldraft |
| Palavras-Chave | dengue fever epidemic prediction seasonal climate forecasts spatio-temporal model |
| Resumo | This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a 2 . 5° × 2 . 5° longitude-latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM-generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| Área | MET |
| Arranjo | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Spatio-temporal modelling of... |
| Conteúdo da Pasta doc | acessar |
| Conteúdo da Pasta source | não têm arquivos |
| Conteúdo da Pasta agreement | não têm arquivos |
| 4. Condições de acesso e uso | |
| URL dos dados | http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP7W/38DDKL8 |
| URL dos dados zipados | http://urlib.net/zip/8JMKD3MGP7W/38DDKL8 |
| Idioma | en |
| Arquivo Alvo | Lowe_Spatio-temporal.pdf |
| Grupo de Usuários | administrator banon valdirene |
| Grupo de Leitores | administrator valdirene |
| Visibilidade | shown |
| Política de Arquivamento | denypublisher denyfinaldraft24 |
| Permissão de Leitura | allow from all |
| Permissão de Atualização | não transferida |
| 5. Fontes relacionadas | |
| Repositório Espelho | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53 |
| Unidades Imediatamente Superiores | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Lista de Itens Citando | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/01.02.22.14 1 |
| Divulgação | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; MGA; COMPENDEX. |
| Acervo Hospedeiro | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02 |
| 6. Notas | |
| Campos Vazios | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url |
| 7. Controle da descrição | |
| e-Mail (login) | valdirene |
| atualizar | |